A Look Back at Hurricane Irene, and Some things that Need to be Said...

Hi Everyone, and welcome back.

At this point, I think it's a good bet that the name "Irene" will be retired from the list of tropical storm/hurricane names. It certainly is a name that residents of the East Coast will not soon forget. It was a tropical system that affected literally everyone on the eastern seaboard in some manner. Heavy rain and strong winds struck the U.S. mainland from Florida to Maine, and reached as far inland as western Pennsylvania and New York.

Irene was a storm of "firsts." She was the first tropical system in the Atlantic in 2011 to reach hurricane strength, and she was also the first to become a major hurricane. She was also the first hurricane to impact the U.S. mainland in 4 years, and the first hurricane to make a direct strike on the Northeast in 20 years. The last to do so was Hurricane Bob in August, 1991.

What started as a tropical wave with potential off the African Coast on August 15, strengthened into a healthy tropical storm 5 days later in the central Atlantic. Two days later, after a brief landfall in Puerto Rico, Irene reached hurricane-strength and continued on toward Hispanola (Dominican Republic & Haiti). Her close brush with the island slowed her strengthening for just a bit, but Irene eventually emerged back over open water near the Bahamas and intensified to a Category 3, becoming the year's first major hurricane on August 23. She then spent Aug. 24 and 25 tearing through the Bahamas, leaving a trail of flooding and devastation across the island chain. By Friday August 26, she had her sights set on the U.S. and more specifically, North Carolina. Though her assault on the U.S. mainland began with intense rain bands over Florida, the brunt of Irene's power didn't truly come ashore until Saturday morning. Though Irene was a Category 3 storm through most of her trip near the Southeast, she weakened to a Category 1 storm before making landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 AM on Saturday August 27. Amazingly enough, Irene's strength did not deteriorate much, despite spending about 10 hours over land. Still a Category 1 storm, Irene next made landfall in New Jersey near Little Egg Inlet at 4:35 AM on August 28. By then, intense rain and winds from the system stretched from southern New Jersey almost to Lake George. She would make one final landfall at about 9:00 AM on Coney Island in Brooklyn as a tropical storm. Despite no longer being a hurricane, the devastation Irene would wreak up on New England and Upstate New York would be unfathomable. The storm continued on a northeastward track through New England, passing through the Berkshires and just west of Brattleboro, VT before lifting into Maine and ultimately out into Canada. Winds were strong here in our area, but the rain did incalculably more damage than anything the wind did. You've all been hearing the reports, so I won't go into specifics right now. We'll look at those a little farther down the road, when all of Irene's aftermath is said and done.

I do, however, have some points I want to make. In the day or two following Irene, I have seen and read many reports claiming that the forecasts for the storm were blown and that the storm was not as intense as expected. Some even claimed that the storm's track did not pan out as forecast. And it hasn't been just been anyone making these claims, its been meteorologists, news networks, an other respected figures in the field of weather. Frankly, I have to say that it is downright infuriating, not just as a meteorologist, but for the seeming disregard for individuals.

I may only be little over a year into my career as a meteorologist, but weather has been a part of my life for over 20 years. Yes, I still have lots to learn, but I can honestly say that I have never seen a hurricane forecasted so well; not only its path, but its intensity as well. I'll start with the storm's track. Yes, it did change several times. Early on, it looked like Florida was going to take a direct hit from the storm. Gradually the track forecast evolved and was adjusted and re-adjusted, just like any forecast would be when new data comes in. From the standpoint of the impact on the United States, you honestly could not have asked for a better forecast. From the time Irene was sitting just east of Florida, the forecasts brought her across North Carolina and then into New England. Minor adjustments east or west were made from time to time, sometimes bringing it closer to and then farther from areas like New York City. Even when the track did shift, it was only by about 20-30 miles, which is negligible when it comes to the track of the hurricane. At the risk of going on for hours, here's the bottom line: The track that Irene took along the entire East Coast from Florida to New England was correct to within 50 miles as much as 5 days in advance. It doesn't get much better than that. I will also say that I have never seen a tropical system's track forecasted as well as Irene's was.

On the subject of intensity, there's something that needs to be kept in mind. Hurricanes/tropical storms are not small, localized storms. They do vary in size, yes, but they are large, sprawling storms. When it comes to the intensity observed in a given location, it depends on where you are in relation to the storm's center. Based on the direction the storm is moving, you spilt it into 4 quadrants. If you wind up in the right 2 quadrants (particularly the right-front quadrant), the storm will tend to be more intense than in the left 2 quadrants. It has to do with momentum...I'll explain it in another post. Here's where I find things get extremely disappointing and frustrating when it comes to peoples' perception of how Irene's forecast panned out. I will just say it, I think a lot of it has to do with how New York City got by relatively unscathed when the forecasts were for more flooding and stronger winds. Irene did technically weaken to a tropical storm just before making landfall on Coney Island. When I say "just before" I mean literally about an hour before making landfall. The storm's center tracked just east of New York City, placing them in the "weaker" side of the storm. As a result, the winds were not as profound as they were in, say, Montauk or eastern Connecticut. The perception then seemed to be that the forecasters got it wrong, just because one location, admittedly a huge one, did not see as intense winds as were initially forecast. This led some in the meteorology field to go as far as to say that "this is why we can't trust the models all the time." That is such a dangerous thing to say...especially for one so widely known and popular as a "weatherman" as this person is. A statement like that will completely destroy peoples' faith in forecasts, and may lead people to not take warnings as seriously next time. And in this instance, it's a statement that is based on the impact in a single location, when literally thousands of locations on the East Coast were impacted. Here's the bottom line on this note: Hurricane Irene made landfall as a Category 1 storm in North Carolina as opposed to a Category 3 as was forecast 3 days in advance. The models DID catch this and adjust in advance though. As for the intensity forecast in New England, that was, to put a number on it, 95% correct. The forecast 3 days in advance was for the storm to be a Category 1 hurricane at landfall on Long Island with winds at 80 mph. She may have been a tropical storm at her New York landfall, but her winds were 65 MPH...a difference of only 15 MPH. That is also, about as close as you can get, plus it was that close as much as 3 days out.

The theme of the week on network news seems to be that "Irene was not as intense as forecasts thought." To anyone who honestly wants to think that, I will say this... Tell that to the people of Prattsville, NY whose town has literally been washed away by waters that came roaring down the Catskills. Tell that to the people of Middleburgh, NY and any other town along the Schoharie Creek whose towns were swallowed by water when the creek rose 20 feet due to Irene's "not-as-intense" rainfall. Tell that to the people of Wilmington and Brattleboro, VT who also had their towns inundated with water from the surrounding rivers, and had homes and businesses completely washed away. Tell that to anyone living along the Mohawk and Hudson Rivers who had their homes flooded when the waters rose. Tell that to people living in northern New Jersey, whose livelihoods have been swallowed by the Passaic River. Tell that to people who watched bridges and cars being swept away by raging rivers that were normally small, trickling creeks.

If the storm wasn't "as bad as expected" in a given area, instead of pointing fingers and saying the forecasts were wrong, how about we be thankful that it didn't turn out as badly? New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been catching so much flak for evacuating parts of the city for what turned out "not to be as bad." The fact of the matter is, he made the right decision. He made a choice to do what he thought was best to protect the people of his city. People had to leave their homes or apartments for a day or two. So what? Shouldn't they be glad and relieved that they can go back to their home that isn't as badly damaged, if it even is at all? On the flip side, consider this. What if no evacuation order was given, and the storm had been worse than forecast? Bottom line: If you got by relatively unscathed, be thankful, instead of demonizing the forecasts. The forecasts are their for the benefit of the public, not the forecasters issuing them. It might not have been bad for you...but plenty of people lost absolutely everything.

As someone who was out in the storm on Sunday, I saw the devastation with my own eyes. I travelled from location to location around east-central New York. I saw towns swallowed by water, and people in absolute shock because they just lost their home. I saw streets turned into rivers of raging water, tossing trees like they were toothpicks and sweeping up cars like they were toys. I saw people being rescued from their flood-surrounded homes by bucket-loaders. And for as overwhelming as it got...I know I only saw an infinitesimally small piece of the whole picture.

To those who got by relatively unscathed, please don't lose sight of how lucky you are...because so many people lost everything. My thoughts and prayers go out to ALL who have been affected by this storm.

Thanks for reading, and listening...

Until next time...

H-O-T

Hello everyone, and welcome again! As if we needed any reminder, it's Summertime! Of course, with Summer we expect the heat and humidity levels to rise accordingly. Depending on where you live in the country...or the world, you've likely become accustomed to a certain level of Summer heat. Here in Upstate New York and New England, high 80s and low 90s generally serve as the threshold for what many residents would consider hot. Throw in a healthy dose of humidity, and things become uncomfortable fast. By contrast, head to parts of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and even the central Plains, and most people probably wouldn't bat an eyebrow at a day near 100°.

But, every now and again Mother Nature decides to crank the heater to the max and walk away for a while. It may start as something isolated, like a heat wave over southern Texas or the desert Southwest. A stretch of 95°+ degree days in Phoenix or Albuquerque or a few 100°+ days in Houston and Dallas. Initially, it may look like the pattern will break and the heat will die down. But then, seemingly overnight, the isolated pocket of blistering air becomes a surging torrid leviathan that envelopes two-thirds or more of the nation in dangerously hot and humid air. This has been exactly the case for the better part of the last 2 months here in the U.S.

Now, the monstrous mass of heat and humidity is beginning to make its move. A ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains is gaining strength and beginning its push toward the north and east. In most cases, a ridge of high pressure is something we'd celebrate to an extent. It means fair weather, and at other times of the year, a comfortable moderation in temperatures. This time, however, it's a torrent of dangerous heat that's set to cook us for days on end.

Here are some of the highlights from this unrelenting heat wave so far:

Excessive Heat Watches/Warnings and/or Heat Advisories have been posted for 30 states at the same time, with that number expected to rise to near 40.

As of 7/17/2011, Oklahoma City had seen 27 days with temperatures above 100°. That puts the city on pace to tie or break the record of 50 days set in 1980.

As of 7/10/2011, Witchita Fall, Texas had seen 36 or 38 days will temperatures above 95°.
Knoxville, Iowa recorded a heat index of 131° on 7/18/2011.

Minneapolis, Minnesota broke unofficial the record for the highest dew point temperature ever recorded there. The dew point reached 82 degrees between 3:00 and 4:00 PM on 7/19/2011, breaking the previous record of 81.

National high temperatures on 07/19/2011

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg (or inferno, I guess...) as far as records and notable statistics from this year's heat wave. Now that it's coming our way, it's important to be prepared, and to know what to do to keep yourself safe during an extreme heat wave. The fact of the matter is, heat is one of the biggest weather-related killers, and no one is immune to its dangers.

Here are some important heat safety tips, plus a breakdown of heat-related advisories and warnings:

Heat Advisory: High heat and humidity are expected to result in a heat index of 100°-105° during the daytime, or overnight lows above 80° are expected for 2 consecutive days or more.

Excessive Heat Watch: Issued by the National Weather Service when heat indices in excess of 105ºF during the day combined with nighttime low temperatures of 80ºF or higher are forecast to occur for two consecutive days.

Excessive Heat Warning: Issued when heat index values over 105° are expected for more than 3 hours per day for two days or more, or if heat index values over 115° are expected at all.

What you Should Do:
    -  Limit time spent outdoors.
    -  If you must conduct activities outdoors, limit them to either the early morning or evening.
    -  STAY HYDRATED! Drink plenty of cool water.
    -  Have a cool place to relax, preferably an air-conditioned one.
    -  Brings pets indoors and keep them out of the heat. Take them on short walks only.

Be safe over the next few days, everyone! Until next time!

2011 Tornadoes: Another Revisiting

Welcome everyone! We all know that it has been an absolutely unforgiving and unrelenting year for tornadoes and extreme weather in general. One could spend weeks retelling and accounting it all, from the unprecedented onslaught of tornadoes in April, to the record floods along the Mississippi River and here in the Northeast in May, and back to tornadoes again in May and June. Extreme heat and drought have even made their presence known across a large expanse of the country in the Plains and parts of the Southwest. As promised though, one more time, we revisit the realm of powerful and deadly tornadoes.

The severe weather had seemed to be showing some mercy during the month of May. That of course came to a screeching halt on May 22, when an EF5 tornado tore through Joplin, Missouri killing over 150 people. But the tornadoes would not stop there that week. Just two days later, the same storm system would spark yet another outbreak of destructive twisters across the nation's heartland in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Arkansas. Goldsby, Oklahoma would catch particular attention on the afternoon of May 24, 2011 as an EF3 tornado tore through parts of the town. Houses were wiped clean off of their foundations, leaving little more than a concrete slab behind. The twister itself was captured on video by KFOR's Chopper 4 as it tore across the countryside. The pilot even briefly set the chopper down near a demolished house to check on the survivors stepping out from their storm cellar. Despite the destruction seen across the town, no one was killed by this tornado.

Still, the picutres speak for themselves...

Above is an SRV (Storm Relative Velocity) radar image out of Norman, Oklahoma from the evening of May 24, 2011. The image shows wind speed and direction across the radar's field of view. Red colors note winds blowing away from the radar, while green colors denote winds that are blowing toward the radar. The circled area shows what is called a "couplet" and indicates an area where the winds within a storm are rotating and where a tornado may possibly be located. This particular image shows a strong tornado rolling through the western suburbs of Oklahoma City. Tornadoes are not usually this easy to spot on radar.

We here in the Northeast weren't spared from this year's tornado rampage. A strong cold front barreling across upstate New York and western New England brought the severe weather here to our neck of the woods, getting the month of June off to a destructive start. Shortly after noon on June 1, 2011 showers and strong thunderstorms began to develop in an unseasonably hot and humid air mass. Parts of Saratoga, Washington, and Rensselaer Counties in NY were bombarded with torrential downpours and enormous hail. The storms continued east into southern Vermont and western Massachusetts, dropping hail over 3" in diameter in some areas. The greater Albany area dodged a thunderstorm that just nicked the south side of the city, but this particular storm would make a name for itself before the day was over.

The cold front continued into central New England, taking the storms with it. However, on this day, central Massachusetts, southern Vermont, and southern New Hampshire was a simmering pressure cooker just waiting to pop. High heat and humidity coupled with favorable wind shear and a strong trigger along the cold front provided more than enough fuel to support strong, rotating thunderstorms. For as strong as the initial storms had been in eastern New York, they were only precursors to some absolutely explosive storms that would fire in central New England. By about 4:00 PM that afternoon, rotating supercell thunderstorms were exploding to life as they rolled downslope of the Bekshires. Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings were alreay being issued, including one tornado warning that was issued around the Brattleboro/Keene area of VT and NH. Also around this time, the same cell that just missed Albany earlier in the day had now grown into a full-fledged supercell just to the west of Springfield, Massachusetts. The storm continued to strengthen as it began to bear down on the city. The greater Springfield area was placed under a tornado warning around 4:30 PM, and tower cameras in the city were about to catch video that would soon go viral in the coming hours. A powerful tornado swept in across the Connecticut River, plowing right into the city of Springfield. The twister damaged homes and businesses, destroyed countless vehicles, and even flipped a tractor trailer right in the middle of the evening rush hour. The tornado, later determined to be an EF3, was responsible for 3 deaths in the greater Springfield area.

Here is a shot taken from a tower camera in Springfield, MA as the tornado crossed the Connecticut River into the city.

One of many streets with demolished buildings following the tornado.

Another view of the tornado as it tore across the city of Springfield. The twister would continue as far east as Sturbridge, MA destroying several homes in the process.

It's been said time after time this year, but I'll say it one more time. All of these accounts of tornadoes serve as reminders of what an intensely active year it has been. Tornado activity has trailed off in recent weeks, and statistically we are beginning to head into the quieter time of the year. The year of extremes has survived in other ways, however. Record heat, more flooding in the northern Plains, and measurable snow over Colorado as late as the beginning of June keep giving up things to talk about, and keep weather in the news headlines. Now a month into hurricane season, we've had only one named storm in the Atlantic. Will this year of extremes expand its influence into a record year of hurricanes? Only time will tell.

Until next time!

Deadly Weather makes a Wicked Return

Welcome back everyone! Apologies to all for the delays following my last post. I had nearly completed a post about the stretch of quiet weather the nation had settled into following the unprecedented and deadly month of severe storms in April...but Mother Nature decided to throw a few more temper tantrums. Thus, the year of wicked weather that has been 2011 continued.

Hail, high wind, lightning, floods, and more tornadoes than anyone would care to think about have left so many people wondering; what's causing this unending barrage of deadly weather? I think the best explanation came from Steve DiRienzo, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Albany, NY. Our atmosphere seems to be having a little bit of an identity crisis this year. Remember how winter just would not seem to end this year? We had snow into the first few weeks of Spring here in the Northeast for crying out loud! Believe it or not, "winter" is not completely gone from the equation, even though we've had some decidedly warm and Summer-like weather recently. As Steve put it, the air flow and storm tracks through our atmosphere is still set in "winter mode" if you will. However, temperatures are shifting toward their normal late-Spring and Summer values...and even higher as of late. This gives developing storms all of the dynamics of a winter storm, with the added power and ferocity of heat and high humidity. Once these storm systems develop, they race off toward the east on similar paths that those of a giant winter storm would take, meaning people from the Gulf Coast to Maine see the impacts. From there, we've seen the end result.

After the worst April on record for tornadoes, May seemed to be giving us a break from the onslaught of the severe weather. Of course, another beast reared its ugly head in the form of the worst flooding ever seen in many locations along the Mississippi River. Then, just when it seemed like things were becoming quiet, deadly tornadoes struck again on May 22, changing the city of Joplin, Missouri forever.

With the atmosphere still experiencing its identity crisis, yet another unusually powerful storm system moved out from the Rocky Mountains into the Plains. With a surge of unseasonably cold air surging southward from Canada, an intensely strong cold front developed and cut into an equally unseasonable surge of warm, humid air racing in from the Gulf of Mexico. Toss in rampant wind shear, and the atmosphere became a pressure cooker waiting to pop. By late-afternoon on May 22, supercell thunderstorms were developing like firecrackers from Texas to Tennessee, to Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some of the storms formed squall lines and produced straight-line winds and enormous hail that wreaked havoc over almost a third of the country. All too many others spawned violent and deadly tornadoes, one of which tore straight through Joplin, Missouri. The storm was later determined to be an EF5, topping the Fujita Scale with winds above 200 MPH. It was only the latest tornado tragedy to occur this year, joining the likes of the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado and the North Carolina outbreak in April. As of June 20, the Joplin death toll stands at 155 people, with many still in critical condition due to injuries sustained during the storm. The pictures of the damage were absolutely indescribable, with the storm destroying an estimated 8,000 buildings in and around the Joplin area.

A tragedy in every sense of the word...

Above are the total storm reports for the day on May 22, 2011. Another unbelievable day.

The unusual weather patterns responsible for all of this year's severe weather have not shown signs of changing at all. In my next post, we'll take a closer look at two other recent tornadoes that struck in Goldsby, Oklahoma and much closer to home in Springfield, Massachusetts.

Thanks for bearing with me during the delay. I'll be back to a regular schedule from here on out.

Until next time!

From Severe Weather, to Severe Flooding

There's always something to talk about with weather. Be it a stretch of dry, mild days after a cool and rainy start to Spring, or a monster outbreak of severe storms spanning from New York to Texas. Even a rare sighting of tornadoes off the coast of Hawaii makes headlines and gives us something to talk about when we spend time with friends and family, or make small talk with a stranger in line at the bank. Spring 2011 took its time getting here in the Northeast, slowly and almost silently. In other parts of the U.S. however, Spring made its arrival by kicking the door in and yelling at the top of its lungs.

In little more than a month's time, we've seen several different onslaughts of extreme weather. In many cases, these events have had the word "historic" or "record" attached to them. Generally, that's not a good thing when you're talking about weather. True, some weather records are easier to deal with. Record high and low temperatures: might be a bit uncomfortable at the time, but personally, I think they're somewhat fun. Record snowfall: yes, it can make life difficult by trapping us in our neighborhoods, and it can be a real pain to move or shovel, but in the end it eventually melts and it's gone. Then, we step into the realm of record severe weather...never good.

It's incredible when you stop and tally everything up from April 2011 alone. Front-and-center is the staggering amount of tornadoes. April 2011 shattered the record for the total number of tornadoes within the month of April, coming in around at around 600 reported tornadoes (exact number still to be determined). The previous record was 267 set in 1974, largely due to the Super Outbreak that occurred that year. Additionally, April 2011 also set the record for most tornadoes in any given month, with the previous record occurring in May 2003 with 542 tornadoes. Also on the subject of tornadoes, the outbreak the occurred from April 25-28 spawned more tornadoes than any other outbreak in history.

Now that we have moved into May, severe weather has quieted down, but the devastating storms brought more than just tornadoes and destructive winds. They also dumped tremendous amounts of rain over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, triggering an accelerated snowmelt and causing an overwhelming amount of water to inundate the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Cities all along the main stretch of the Mississippi have been washed over by record levels of water as the river spilled and surged over its banks. This includes cities like Memphis (TN), Natchez (MS), and it's even prompted the Army Corps of Engineers to open the Morganza Spillway northwest of New Orleans in an attempt to prevent the city and other flood-prone areas of southern Louisiana from seeing a catastrophic flood. Thousands of people have been displaced from their homes, and the flood conditions still persist. It could take until June before the waters really start to recede. I'll have a follow-up post with some numbers once they become available...but that again, could take weeks, since this flooding event could take until the middle of June to completely pass.

Thanks for reading!

Until next time!

April 2011: A Now-Infamous and Tragic Month of Tornadoes

April 2011 is a month that will not soon be forgotten, and is set to go down as an historic month for tornadoes. What began as a month with a larger-than-normal amount of severe weather became what will likely be one of, if not the most, infamous “Aprils” ever for devastating and deadly tornadoes.

While severe weather can occur at any time of the year, April through June is typically the most active timeframe for tornadoes with the peak occurring in May. This is because the jet stream that steers storm systems across the northern half of our planet begins to recede farther north due to the transition to the warmer Spring and Summer seasons. During this time of the year, storm systems are steered along a path that tends to impact a greater area of the United States. Not only that, but developing storms tend to be stronger due to a greater temperature contrast between the cold polar air, and the now warmer air over most of the country. All of these overlying factors are prime ingredients for spawning powerful thunderstorms and, consequently, tornadoes.

April 2011 didn’t waste any time winding itself up. For most of the month, the jet stream was positioned in a way that low-pressure disturbance would roll down off of the Rocky Mountains into a “sweet spot” that seemed to set itself up over the southern Plains. Disturbances would move into this area and feed on a tremendous amount of warm air over land and moisture being pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico. Throw in some strong sunlight, and you’re basically lighting the fuse on a pile of dynamite. In meteorological terms, that’s exactly what we saw for the first two weeks of the month. Lines of supercell thunderstorms would explosively intensify out ahead of these developing storm systems, and then race across the Southeast, Midwest, and into the Mid-Atlantic states. What quickly became unusual about these tornado outbreaks was the type, and overwhelming amount of tornadoes touching down. The terms “long-track” and “wedge” were popping up a lot when describing these tornadoes. We even heard the term “multi-vortex” thrown around on a few occasions, and one such tornado was caught on film near Tushka and Atoka, Oklahoma on April 14. This month would go on to spawn the deadliest two-day tornado outbreak since April 5-6, 1936.

Here is where it all started. April 4, 2011 brought an incredible outbreak of severe weather. The preliminary data shown here from the Storm Prediction Center was staggering enough, as it set the single-day record for most total severe weather reports. Damaging wind was the main antagonist here with reports spanning from east Texas all the way to the Eastern seaboard from Pennsylvania to Florida. Tornadoes made up 68 of the 1,476 reports, but this was only a precursor of things to come.

The next notable outbreak, seen below, came during a 3-day stretch from April 14-16. Powerful tornadoes tore across parts of Mississippi and Alabama on the 15^th leveling communities, and resulting in dozens of fatalities. The outbreak culminated with that largest number of tornadoes ever reported in a single day in North Carolina on April 16^th. Another notable twister from this storm system was a multi-vortex wedge tornado that occurred in southern Oklahoma, mentioned earlier. Footage of this tornado can be found here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qYfsPxfnfE

Then came the tornado outbreak from April 26-28. This is one that will go down in history with other such infamous outbreaks as the Super Outbreak of 1974, and the Palm Sunday Outbreak. Shown below is the storm reports from the worst day of the three; April 27, 2011.

Preliminary reports from April 27 alone put the number at 263 tornadoes while the entire 3-day event spawned an estimated 312 tornadoes. Hardest hit were portions of Alabama and Mississippi, but tornadoes were reported as far north as Frankfort, NY. Tragically, this outbreak claimed at least 344 lives and destroyed countless communities. The National Weather Service is still assessing damage and working to determine the exact number of tornadoes that formed. Assuming that most of these reports verify, this event will set the record for most tornadoes spawned by a single storm system. Again, preliminary reports suggest an estimated 312 tornadoes, with the previous record being 148 tornadoes spawned during the Super Outbreak of April 1974. This will also go down as the second deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. history.

One final image I’ll close with here. The above map shows the approximate tracks of all tornadoes that occurred in April 2011. A simply staggering number of twister covering an incredible amount of territory.

With any luck, resident of the storm-ravaged South and Midwest will get a break in the coming weeks. Yes, May is typically the peak of tornado season, but one can only hope that further tragedy will not come to these areas.

Until next time…

Spring Makes its Long-Awaited Arrival with a Multi-Hazard Storm System to impact the Northeast

It took its sweet time, but it looks like it's finally safe to say that Spring is here in the Northeast. Yes, technically it's been here since March 21, but you wouldn't have known it based on the downright wintry weather and cold we've had over the past two weeks. Temperatures that had been running anywhere between 10 and 20 degrees below normal are returning to the values they should be at during this time of the year. For us here in Upstate New York and Western New England, that means highs in the upper 40s and low 50s!

Also with Spring’s arrival, comes the threat for those powerful Springtime storm systems that barrel across the country every year at this time. They bring everything from snow and icy precipitation, to heavy rains, severe thunderstorms, and tornado outbreaks. We had a brush one of the first of these Spring storm systems about two weeks ago when we just missed getting snowed on as a storm passed by to our south. Spring lovers rejoiced, hardened snow lovers grimaced, and us forecasters pounded our fists on the desks when the dry air ate away nearly all of the snow we were calling for.

Then of course, we have the infamous Spring Nor’easters. These storms are notorious for taking towns from the nice, warm comfort of a sunny Spring day, and burying them under several inches of snow the next. They also bring the battering winds and flooding rains that can swell and overflow rivers for days or even weeks. Thankfully, this is yet another storm we manage to dodge early in this Spring season. The potential was there for Upstate NY and Western New England to see another big snowfall on the order of a foot or more in some areas; particularly over the Green Mountains and the Berkshires. In a seemingly unprecedented turn of events, the major forecast models, that for nearly a week had disagreed on everything from the time of the storm’s arrival to the intensity and type of precipitation came into almost complete agreement. Everything pointed to a significant April Fool’s Day snowfall in our area, and across much of the Northeast. Then at the last possible model run before the storm’s arrival, the disagreement was back. Only now, it was getting into the “now-casting” phase of the storm. The storm formed farther east into the Atlantic Ocean and took a track that kept it far enough out to bring only a few inches of snow at best to our area, which then changed to a nasty, cold rain. So on April Fool’s Day, the joke was on us as forecasters. Although the storm almost seemed to poke fun at as by hooking just a bit West and hugging the New England coast, as if to say “Ooh, you were so close!” So Winter seemed to score one more victory by teasing us into going for a big snowfall, and then leaving us eating humble pie and hitting our heads against the wall. But when all’s said and done, Spring is a fun and challenging season to forecast in. So now that it seems to be settling in for the long haul here in the Northeast, we find ourselves staring at a multi-hazard storm system that has us square in its sights.

While much of what we see here in Upstate NY and Western New England will be rain, this storm will be bringing a multitude of weather to the Eastern United States. The warm front reaches us first during the early morning hours on Monday April 4. Initially, the air mass overhead should be cold enough to support some snow in the high elevations of the Catskills, Adirondacks, Greens, and Berkshires. Valley locations may see a brief period of a rain/sleet mix, but this will all change to rain once the warm front lifts off to the northeast. Temperatures will quickly rise into the 40s, and should peak in the low or middle 50s. Monday’s highs could very well occur at the very end of the day, since warm air is expected to continue to pour into the region well into Tuesday morning. The main threat for us on Monday will be the rain, which could be quite heavy at times. This presents a problem for areas in the Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley where there is still snow on the ground. The warm air and rainfall will accelerate snowmelt, so flooding around creeks and low-lying areas could be a big problem. Flood Watches are posted until Tuesday afternoon, for several counties north and west of Albany so be extra careful on the roadways.

Here are the counties under Flood Watches as of 10:48 PM Sunday, 4/3.

But remember, this is a multi-hazard storm. While we will be dealing with some brief snow or mixed precip and then ultimately rain, parts of the Midwest and the Southeast could be looking at another outbreak of severe weather.

Above is the severe weather outlook for Monday 4/4, showing the greatest risk over parts of Missouri and Kansas. A slight risk exists over a large swath of territory from Michigan into northeastern Texas. The outer (gold) swath indicates an extremely slight risk, including parts of our area.

Taking a closer look, here’s the outlook for hail on Monday. This also appears to be the main threat as far as severe weather is concerned with this system. There is a slight risk of tornadoes with this system on Monday, but a very slight risk.

Then we get to Tuesday, and the storm gets a bit more interesting for us. The cold front responsible for all of this weather arrives in our area early Tuesday morning, and could jolt you out of a sound sleep with a rumble of thunder or two. While I don’t anticipate any severe weather in our next of the woods, the storms early Tuesday could produce some very heavy downpours gusty winds, and of course, some cloud-to-ground lightning. This doesn’t mean that a severe thunderstorm warning or two is completely out of the question, though. The tricky forecasting part for Tuesday morning will be the day’s high temperature. Model data points to the chance that temperatures could soar to the middle and upper 60s, but I’m reluctant to shoot that high given the fact that it will be raining, which tends to cool the air. Nonetheless, temperatures stand a good chance of spiking to 60 or so briefly Tuesday morning with the frontal passage. Temperatures will then drop through the remainder of Tuesday as we start to clear out behind the front.

This is the GFS forecast for 06Z (2 AM) Tuesday morning 4/5, around the time that the cold front will be moving into the region. It indicates a sharp spike in the temperatures at the 850 mb level in the atmosphere, which will translate into a spike in temperatures here at the surface. So, while I don’t want to jump quite to the extreme that the models are indicating, it also is not a foregone conclusion that we could reach above 60 degrees.

It looks to be an interesting storm, with a wide range of weather. Looking to the end of the week, it seems we will be getting our fair share of April showers.

Until next time!