Winter 2012: What Winter? (Part 2)

Hi everyone, and welcome back!

Last week, we took a look at the winter that just hasn't been here in the Northeast. It probably comes as no surprise that a week later, well, nothing's changed. Sure we just had a brush with a weak winter storm, but it was just that...a brush. The fact of the matter is, winter has gone somewhere. It hasn't simply vanished from the face of the Earth. The problem is, winter has gone to areas that don't normally see it to the extent that they have this year. People of Alaska, Greenland, and especially Europe continue to try to dig out from, or just survive, winter's icy onslaught. The results, while record-breaking, have done far more harm than good.

In Alaska, residents are still reeling from one of the coldest January's on record. In fact, for most of northern Alaska it WAS the coldest January on record. In the town of Nome, the average air temperature for the entire month was -16.6°F. This shattered the previous record of -15.2°F back in 1989. The temperature also dropped to -40° in Nome for the first time since 1999. Statistics from other parts of Alaska are staggering as well! Here's a sampling:

January 2012

Alaska

Kotzebue       Average Temperature: -22.6°   Lowest Temperature: -45°

Galena          Average Temperature: -32.6°   Lowest Temperature: -65°

Bettles           Average Temperature: -35.6°   Lowest Temperature: -61°

Tanana          Average Temperature: -32.6°   Lowest Temperature: -61°

You get the idea. The coldest temperature recorded at any point was -66° in Fort Yukon, AK on January 31. Winter obviously in relentless full force in Alaska. But that's just one area. 

Greenland and Europe not only have the wicked cold, but snow has absolutely overwhelmed so many places. According to a "rule" followed by News10's own Steve Caporizzo (and the rest of us in the News10 weather department), when Greenland sees a winter with unrelenting snowstorms, we tend see fewer storms and consequently less snow here in New York and New England. The reason being that the jet stream tends to force the coastal storms that typically give us our whopper snowfalls farther out to sea before they have a chance to hit the Northeast. As a result, the storms arc into Greenland. We have seen this time and again this year, and the pattern simply refuses to change. 

For this particular winter though, Europe has seen the worst of it, especially when you consider the human toll.  A record-shattering cold outbreak in eastern Europe has claimed as many as 650 lives. Monster snowstorms have trapped tens of thousands of people in their homes as snow has piled up well over the roofs of houses and completely blocked off roadways. Local governments have had to resort to dropping supplies to trapped citizens by airlifts, and even those efforts have been extremely difficult due to nearly constant storms. Cars caught on local highways during the storms have found themselves in major pileups, and local authorities are unsure of when they will be able to clear the wreckage. This is just a small bit of the whole picture going on in Europe right now. For more details, check out the following link:

http://www.news10.com/story/16939671/cold-snap-in-eastern-europe-kills-more-than-500

While only paying us brief visits here in the Northeast, winter has certainly been beating down on other parts of the globe. We may be missing it to a degree here, but let's hope that it lets up soon for those who have been suffering in it for weeks on end now. While this may only matter to those of us in the world of weather geeks, here's a bit of good news. Meteorological Spring begins in only 14 days on March 1. For so many, it cant' come soon enough.

Thanks for reading!

Until next time...

Winter 2012: What Winter?

Hi everyone, and welcome back! Sorry for the long hiatus. The holiday season always gets busy in the weather office...and I'll admit, I may have gotten a little lazy with the blog. In any case, it's back to business, and it's time to talk about this winter that hasn't been.

As Fall 2011 drew toward its close, the inevitable wonder and worry about the upcoming winter began to force its way back into our minds. "How much snow will we get?" "How cold will it be" "How long will it last?" These are just some of the standard, basic questions of course, but ones we've all heard or asked time and again. So far, those answers may have gone like "not much," or "not very," or "It's Winter?!" That's not to say things won't change here in the Northeast, but it suffices to say that we are running out of time. (Personally, I'm just fine with this. Last year was more winter than I could ever care for.) Though interestingly enough, we find ourselves in the same climate pattern as we did a year ago: La Nina.

Here's a brief definition. La Nina occurs when ocean temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean fall about 3°C - 5°C below normal. The common results are a prolonged period of wet weather in the Midwestern United States, drought in the Southeast, and milder, wetter summers in North America overall. These are typical, but not always guaranteed, as evidenced by the winter we're having so far.

When it comes to La Nina, Mother Nature sometimes keeps a wild card up her sleeve. This year, she's played it, and it's been working in our favor (or against us if you're a skier or snowboarder). This so-called wild card is what's known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Put simply, it is a large-scale climate pattern that has to do with atmospheric temperatures around the North Pole. The AO is classified as being in one of two phases: positive or negative. In a positive phase, which we have found ourselves in for nearly the entire winter,   temperatures tend to run warmer than normal across much of the eastern U.S. Couple that with La Nina which has forced the jet stream (storm track) farther north than usual, and you tend to get a winter where cold and snow are hard to come by. There are many other lesser factors that go in to all of this, but here's the main answer to why we have not had much of a winter this year. A second La Nina year in a row, combined with an ongoing positive phase in the AO is causing warmer than usual temperatures and is forcing storms farther away from our region or preventing them from forming in the first place. Amazing how you can have the same large-scale climate pattern in place, but get a completely different result thanks to a variation in some smaller variables. Let's compare some numbers:

Albany, NY

2010-2011 Snowfall:  87.2"

2011-2012 Snowfall:  13.6" (As of 2/9/2012)  <-- 24.8" below normal

By 2/9/2011, Albany had already received 60.7" of snow. The seasonal snowfall total of 87.2 made 2010-2011 the 14th snowiest winter on record. Records began in 1884.

Also, as of 2/9/2012, Albany has experienced an 18-day stretch of above-normal high temperatures.

Binghamton, NY

2010-2011 Snowfall:  117.5"
2011-2012 Snowfall:  27.1" (As of 2/9/2012)  <-- 25.2" below normal

By 2/9/2011, Binghamton had already received 69.2" of snow.

Syracuse, NY

2010-2011 Snowfall:  179.0"
2011-2012 Snowfall:  39.8" (As of 2/9/2012)  <-- 53.4" below normal

By 2/9/2011, Syracuse had already received 138.4" of snow.


What a difference a year makes, right? These are just a few examples from New York, but is a general theme across most of the northeastern U.S. This does not mean our current winter is a lost cause. After all, the weather can change in the blink of an eye. If you would like to look a little further into some of the other numbers around the country, check out local National Weather Service offices. You can find the NWS's main website here:

www.nws.noaa.gov

Thanks for reading!

Until next time...