As Fall 2011 drew toward its close, the inevitable wonder and worry about the upcoming winter began to force its way back into our minds. "How much snow will we get?" "How cold will it be" "How long will it last?" These are just some of the standard, basic questions of course, but ones we've all heard or asked time and again. So far, those answers may have gone like "not much," or "not very," or "It's Winter?!" That's not to say things won't change here in the Northeast, but it suffices to say that we are running out of time. (Personally, I'm just fine with this. Last year was more winter than I could ever care for.) Though interestingly enough, we find ourselves in the same climate pattern as we did a year ago: La Nina.
Here's a brief definition. La Nina occurs when ocean temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean fall about 3°C - 5°C below normal. The common results are a prolonged period of wet weather in the Midwestern United States, drought in the Southeast, and milder, wetter summers in North America overall. These are typical, but not always guaranteed, as evidenced by the winter we're having so far.
When it comes to La Nina, Mother Nature sometimes keeps a wild card up her sleeve. This year, she's played it, and it's been working in our favor (or against us if you're a skier or snowboarder). This so-called wild card is what's known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Put simply, it is a large-scale climate pattern that has to do with atmospheric temperatures around the North Pole. The AO is classified as being in one of two phases: positive or negative. In a positive phase, which we have found ourselves in for nearly the entire winter, temperatures tend to run warmer than normal across much of the eastern U.S. Couple that with La Nina which has forced the jet stream (storm track) farther north than usual, and you tend to get a winter where cold and snow are hard to come by. There are many other lesser factors that go in to all of this, but here's the main answer to why we have not had much of a winter this year. A second La Nina year in a row, combined with an ongoing positive phase in the AO is causing warmer than usual temperatures and is forcing storms farther away from our region or preventing them from forming in the first place. Amazing how you can have the same large-scale climate pattern in place, but get a completely different result thanks to a variation in some smaller variables. Let's compare some numbers:
Albany, NY
2010-2011 Snowfall: 87.2"
2011-2012 Snowfall: 13.6" (As of 2/9/2012) <-- 24.8" below normal
By 2/9/2011, Albany had already received 60.7" of snow. The seasonal snowfall total of 87.2 made 2010-2011 the 14th snowiest winter on record. Records began in 1884.
Also, as of 2/9/2012, Albany has experienced an 18-day stretch of above-normal high temperatures.
Binghamton, NY
2010-2011 Snowfall: 117.5"2011-2012 Snowfall: 27.1" (As of 2/9/2012) <-- 25.2" below normal
By 2/9/2011, Binghamton had already received 69.2" of snow.
Syracuse, NY
2010-2011 Snowfall: 179.0"2011-2012 Snowfall: 39.8" (As of 2/9/2012) <-- 53.4" below normal
By 2/9/2011, Syracuse had already received 138.4" of snow.
What a difference a year makes, right? These are just a few examples from New York, but is a general theme across most of the northeastern U.S. This does not mean our current winter is a lost cause. After all, the weather can change in the blink of an eye. If you would like to look a little further into some of the other numbers around the country, check out local National Weather Service offices. You can find the NWS's main website here:
www.nws.noaa.gov
Thanks for reading!
Until next time...
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