At this point, I think it's a good bet that the name "Irene" will be retired from the list of tropical storm/hurricane names. It certainly is a name that residents of the East Coast will not soon forget. It was a tropical system that affected literally everyone on the eastern seaboard in some manner. Heavy rain and strong winds struck the U.S. mainland from Florida to Maine, and reached as far inland as western Pennsylvania and New York.
Irene was a storm of "firsts." She was the first tropical system in the Atlantic in 2011 to reach hurricane strength, and she was also the first to become a major hurricane. She was also the first hurricane to impact the U.S. mainland in 4 years, and the first hurricane to make a direct strike on the Northeast in 20 years. The last to do so was Hurricane Bob in August, 1991.
What started as a tropical wave with potential off the African Coast on August 15, strengthened into a healthy tropical storm 5 days later in the central Atlantic. Two days later, after a brief landfall in Puerto Rico, Irene reached hurricane-strength and continued on toward Hispanola (Dominican Republic & Haiti). Her close brush with the island slowed her strengthening for just a bit, but Irene eventually emerged back over open water near the Bahamas and intensified to a Category 3, becoming the year's first major hurricane on August 23. She then spent Aug. 24 and 25 tearing through the Bahamas, leaving a trail of flooding and devastation across the island chain. By Friday August 26, she had her sights set on the U.S. and more specifically, North Carolina. Though her assault on the U.S. mainland began with intense rain bands over Florida, the brunt of Irene's power didn't truly come ashore until Saturday morning. Though Irene was a Category 3 storm through most of her trip near the Southeast, she weakened to a Category 1 storm before making landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 AM on Saturday August 27. Amazingly enough, Irene's strength did not deteriorate much, despite spending about 10 hours over land. Still a Category 1 storm, Irene next made landfall in New Jersey near Little Egg Inlet at 4:35 AM on August 28. By then, intense rain and winds from the system stretched from southern New Jersey almost to Lake George. She would make one final landfall at about 9:00 AM on Coney Island in Brooklyn as a tropical storm. Despite no longer being a hurricane, the devastation Irene would wreak up on New England and Upstate New York would be unfathomable. The storm continued on a northeastward track through New England, passing through the Berkshires and just west of Brattleboro, VT before lifting into Maine and ultimately out into Canada. Winds were strong here in our area, but the rain did incalculably more damage than anything the wind did. You've all been hearing the reports, so I won't go into specifics right now. We'll look at those a little farther down the road, when all of Irene's aftermath is said and done.
I do, however, have some points I want to make. In the day or two following Irene, I have seen and read many reports claiming that the forecasts for the storm were blown and that the storm was not as intense as expected. Some even claimed that the storm's track did not pan out as forecast. And it hasn't been just been anyone making these claims, its been meteorologists, news networks, an other respected figures in the field of weather. Frankly, I have to say that it is downright infuriating, not just as a meteorologist, but for the seeming disregard for individuals.
I may only be little over a year into my career as a meteorologist, but weather has been a part of my life for over 20 years. Yes, I still have lots to learn, but I can honestly say that I have never seen a hurricane forecasted so well; not only its path, but its intensity as well. I'll start with the storm's track. Yes, it did change several times. Early on, it looked like Florida was going to take a direct hit from the storm. Gradually the track forecast evolved and was adjusted and re-adjusted, just like any forecast would be when new data comes in. From the standpoint of the impact on the United States, you honestly could not have asked for a better forecast. From the time Irene was sitting just east of Florida, the forecasts brought her across North Carolina and then into New England. Minor adjustments east or west were made from time to time, sometimes bringing it closer to and then farther from areas like New York City. Even when the track did shift, it was only by about 20-30 miles, which is negligible when it comes to the track of the hurricane. At the risk of going on for hours, here's the bottom line: The track that Irene took along the entire East Coast from Florida to New England was correct to within 50 miles as much as 5 days in advance. It doesn't get much better than that. I will also say that I have never seen a tropical system's track forecasted as well as Irene's was.
On the subject of intensity, there's something that needs to be kept in mind. Hurricanes/tropical storms are not small, localized storms. They do vary in size, yes, but they are large, sprawling storms. When it comes to the intensity observed in a given location, it depends on where you are in relation to the storm's center. Based on the direction the storm is moving, you spilt it into 4 quadrants. If you wind up in the right 2 quadrants (particularly the right-front quadrant), the storm will tend to be more intense than in the left 2 quadrants. It has to do with momentum...I'll explain it in another post. Here's where I find things get extremely disappointing and frustrating when it comes to peoples' perception of how Irene's forecast panned out. I will just say it, I think a lot of it has to do with how New York City got by relatively unscathed when the forecasts were for more flooding and stronger winds. Irene did technically weaken to a tropical storm just before making landfall on Coney Island. When I say "just before" I mean literally about an hour before making landfall. The storm's center tracked just east of New York City, placing them in the "weaker" side of the storm. As a result, the winds were not as profound as they were in, say, Montauk or eastern Connecticut. The perception then seemed to be that the forecasters got it wrong, just because one location, admittedly a huge one, did not see as intense winds as were initially forecast. This led some in the meteorology field to go as far as to say that "this is why we can't trust the models all the time." That is such a dangerous thing to say...especially for one so widely known and popular as a "weatherman" as this person is. A statement like that will completely destroy peoples' faith in forecasts, and may lead people to not take warnings as seriously next time. And in this instance, it's a statement that is based on the impact in a single location, when literally thousands of locations on the East Coast were impacted. Here's the bottom line on this note: Hurricane Irene made landfall as a Category 1 storm in North Carolina as opposed to a Category 3 as was forecast 3 days in advance. The models DID catch this and adjust in advance though. As for the intensity forecast in New England, that was, to put a number on it, 95% correct. The forecast 3 days in advance was for the storm to be a Category 1 hurricane at landfall on Long Island with winds at 80 mph. She may have been a tropical storm at her New York landfall, but her winds were 65 MPH...a difference of only 15 MPH. That is also, about as close as you can get, plus it was that close as much as 3 days out.
The theme of the week on network news seems to be that "Irene was not as intense as forecasts thought." To anyone who honestly wants to think that, I will say this... Tell that to the people of Prattsville, NY whose town has literally been washed away by waters that came roaring down the Catskills. Tell that to the people of Middleburgh, NY and any other town along the Schoharie Creek whose towns were swallowed by water when the creek rose 20 feet due to Irene's "not-as-intense" rainfall. Tell that to the people of Wilmington and Brattleboro, VT who also had their towns inundated with water from the surrounding rivers, and had homes and businesses completely washed away. Tell that to anyone living along the Mohawk and Hudson Rivers who had their homes flooded when the waters rose. Tell that to people living in northern New Jersey, whose livelihoods have been swallowed by the Passaic River. Tell that to people who watched bridges and cars being swept away by raging rivers that were normally small, trickling creeks.
If the storm wasn't "as bad as expected" in a given area, instead of pointing fingers and saying the forecasts were wrong, how about we be thankful that it didn't turn out as badly? New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been catching so much flak for evacuating parts of the city for what turned out "not to be as bad." The fact of the matter is, he made the right decision. He made a choice to do what he thought was best to protect the people of his city. People had to leave their homes or apartments for a day or two. So what? Shouldn't they be glad and relieved that they can go back to their home that isn't as badly damaged, if it even is at all? On the flip side, consider this. What if no evacuation order was given, and the storm had been worse than forecast? Bottom line: If you got by relatively unscathed, be thankful, instead of demonizing the forecasts. The forecasts are their for the benefit of the public, not the forecasters issuing them. It might not have been bad for you...but plenty of people lost absolutely everything.
As someone who was out in the storm on Sunday, I saw the devastation with my own eyes. I travelled from location to location around east-central New York. I saw towns swallowed by water, and people in absolute shock because they just lost their home. I saw streets turned into rivers of raging water, tossing trees like they were toothpicks and sweeping up cars like they were toys. I saw people being rescued from their flood-surrounded homes by bucket-loaders. And for as overwhelming as it got...I know I only saw an infinitesimally small piece of the whole picture.
To those who got by relatively unscathed, please don't lose sight of how lucky you are...because so many people lost everything. My thoughts and prayers go out to ALL who have been affected by this storm.
Thanks for reading, and listening...
Until next time...
Great blog post Bryan! Couldn't agree more with your thoughts...
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